Oregon Ducks (22-8 Overall, 8-4 Pac 12)
UCLA Bruins (22-11 Overall, 9-6 Pac 12)
Projected Pitching Lineups:
Friday at 6:00 (PST)-Robert Ahlstrom-Oregon (2-3, 2.57 ERA) vs. Zach Pettway-UCLA (1-2, 3.72 ERA)
Saturday at 2:00 (PST) -Cullen Kafka-Oregon (4-1, 2.44 ERA) vs. Sean Mullen-UCLA (7-1, 2.56 ERA)
Sunday at Noon (PST)-Brett Walker-Oregon (4-1, 3.53 ERA) vs. Jesse Bergin-UCLA (4-2, 4.29 ERA)
Projected lineups (based on last series):
Oregon-
- Tanner Smith (LF)-.303 BA (.374 OBP)
- Anthony Hall (CF)-.271 (.329)
- Kenyon Yovan (DH)-.313 (.427)
- Aaron Zavala (RF)-.413 (.545)
- Josh Kasevich (SS)-.303 (.366)
- Gabe Matthews (1B)-.339 (.438)
- Sam Novitske (3B)-.259 (.358)
- Jack Scanlon (C)-.119 (.256)
- Gavin Grant (2B)-.211 (.333)
UCLA-
- Kevin Kendall (CF)-.368 BA (.409 OBP)
- Kyle Cuellar (LF)-.304 (.458)
- Matt McLain (SS)-.328 (.420)
- JT Schwarz (1B)-.412 (.526)
- Mikey Perez (2B)-.285 (.390)
- Josh Hahn (DH)-.306 (.413)
- Noah Cardenas (C)-.262 (.362)
- Michael Curialle (RF)-.281 (.372)
- Kyle Karros (3B)-.261 (.296)
Oregon baseball has been surprising a lot of teams this year. Oregon, picked 7th in the preseason poll, has won six of its eight series so far. This includes taking five of six from rival Oregon State. Oregon currently sits tied for 1st in the conference (based on winning %) and is looking to keep its momentum going having won 11 of its last 15. UCLA, voted the preseason favorite to win the conference, has lost two of its last three series but comes off a series sweep of Utah this past weekend having scored 42 runs over the three games. UCLA is currently on a six game win streak (10-5 in last 15).
Oregon and UCLA both come in as strong hitting teams and will put stress on their opponents’ pitching staff. I would give UCLA a slight edge in hitting as they have some strong hitters on the front end of their lineup that can do damage and have 340 hits on the year as a team, Oregon only has 282. UCLA also has hit 33 home runs to Oregon’s 27. Even giving Oregon the benefit of the doubt that they have played three less games due to COVID cancellations, UCLA does have a slight edge in this category. On the basepaths, Oregon has proved more effective, going 33/40 on stolen bases while UCLA has gone 27/35.
Pitching, however, is a different story. Oregon’s starters have the slight edge on UCLA’s starters with a lower ERA among them as well as they have gone deeper in their starts into later innings, saving the bullpen. UCLA’s bullpen touts a decent ERA but do not have that solid closer they can depend on in a close game. Oregon on the other hand has one of the best closers in the league in Kolby Somers, who has six saves on the year (nine appearances), touting a 1.86 ERA. six saves is currently second in the conference in saves. Pitching edge goes to Oregon.
Both teams have played some common opponents in Arizona and USC. Both Oregon and UCLA had similar showings against these teams, Oregon and UCLA both going 2-1 vs. USC and UCLA going 2-1 against Arizona while Oregon went 1-2.
Finally, Oregon is the home team in this series and it is important to look at stats to consider this. Oregon is currently 12-4 at home while UCLA is 6-6 on the road. Oregon is lucky to get UCLA at home, as UCLA has struggled significantly more on the road than at home (UCLA is 16-5 at home). Edge to Oregon.
Prediction: Oregon wins series 2-1