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My Post Mortem on the Post Mortem (of the Season)

I've read through the entire chains of analysis herein as to what went this way or that..and I can say one thing, unequivocally, had Oregon had better AND consistent QB play all year the Ducks would've won all of their games despite all the youth, lack of practice, opt-outs, lack of 4th Q program and everything else that's been posited as the cause of the overall 'dysfunction' (and lack of consistency this season).

That said, if we're trying to find the post mortem of why?...Here's my top 5..

1. Lack of consistent and elite QB play (pls don't post the #'s regarding Shough's league leading QBR..we all saw the last three games of the year). Said another way..if Ducks had consistently above avg QB play (if Mariota and Herbert are the STANDARD..throw them out by comparison) and if a player the likes of Darren Thomas in his first year was the QB of 2020..Ducks are undefeated in this shortened season.

2A. Opt outs - Strangely these were impactful in two ways..losing Sewell really exacerbating Oregon's lack of OL snaps/starts/cohesion. Ducks also have to find more athleticism at tackle. Anybody watching the line play closely saw that the OL repeatedly got beat by the outside speed rush and it didn't really matter if it was Oregon State, ISU, whoever..OL has to regroup in 2021 and get its best 5 on the field, but make no mistake, the loss of Sewell was beyond huge. With him in the line-up - Ducks could've just started their next best four and it likely wouldn't have mattered - he's that good. Without him, Ducks OL depth was exposed somewhat. Similarly, Holland and Breeze were also brutal losses. One, because Holland is an elite 1/2nd Rd NFL talent and two, Breeze just has a knack of being a playmaker..And outside of UCLA and SC games..Oregon lacked creating crucial takeaways.

2B. Leadership Vortex due to Opt outs - See 2A. In many ways, those guys (Graham included) were our best returning leaders and playmakers. Losing them created a void that the current Ducks in the program couldn't forge and overcome on such a short preseason/season. I could easily argue those defensive players woulda made all the difference vs OSU and shutting down Jefferson..but it was their leadership that Ducks missed most this year. Talent matters, but can't underestimate on-field leadership (see SC..year in and year out).

3. Injuries / Non-participation - Not sure what the cause was but all the highly recruited depth the Ducks have added over the past few years was non-existent for the most part..The TE group - which was supposed to be a strength of this team and is a key to Moorhead's offense - never got to show what it's capable of. See LB core (no Flowe, no Niu, no Johnson, no Cunningham, etc.)..See OL depth, etc., etc. Hopefully, we'll witness where the recruiting has been won the past few years by actually getting to see some of these players flash this spring and next fall.

4. COVID/Lack of fans/Lack of Continuity/Lack of Familiarity/Schedule/etc. - Need I say more? We're talking about 18-22 year old kids for the most part..If we don't think Covid and the insanity of the Pac-12 schedule of "we're not having a season...we're playing in the winter...no, we're playing in the fall..but it'll be a 5-6 game season if we're lucky..." didn't have an impact, than that's just silly. Seriously. Any of us would be saying F-this for the most part, too. It's too bad that all Pac-12 teams couldn't have had their typical summer workouts and fall camps even if the season had to be delayed until Oct or whenever. At least it would have had some of the same consistent markers from a calendar and sequencing standpoint. But what Larry Scott and his lack of leadership did to these poor coaches and student athletes was just a joke. Had the Big 10 not opted back in..the Pac-12 woulda completely been on the outside looking in on this season..but let's be honest..they kind of were anyway.

5. Coaching and I'll say "adapting" - Players make plays. Let's start with that. But we also saw Herbert's output last year vs what he's done in his rookie season with the Chargers (which has been nothing short of phenomenal) so we can't just give this staff a 'pass.' See special teams. Why did it take a season and a half to realize our best FG kicker was a mustached walk-on?? And how bout special teams coaching?? Ugh. For me - it's too early to make any opinions re: Moorhead because he didn't have consistent QB performances to show what his offenses can do. But I have some questions regarding Avalos and his second year performance running the D. Yes, lacking playmakers at safety was definitely a problem but who he played most of the year in place of those guys was a bit of a head scratcher..for instance - why did it take him all season to play DJ James and Bennett Williams significantly like he did vs SC? They were both awesome in that game..total difference-makers. Yet, both hardly played in the bowl game. I'm well aware that DJ plays corner but he played some nickel vs SC and the addition of both he and Williams made the Ducks far more athletic at safety/db to help offset SC's Air Raid.. Also, what was with the Edge Principle Defense Avalos employed most the season where the Ducks DL lined up 1 - 1 1/2 yards off the ball? It didn't work at all and Oregon got literally ran over by UCLA and OSU.

Now back to Moorhead, the offense and specifically, Mario Cristobal, since he's the CEO of the Program..Is it just me or have the Ducks, under MC, had this uncanny pattern of once proving something works..going back to exactly what doesn't work?? See the the pistol dive play that's gotten stuffed on 3rd/4th and short for three years running now. Or moreover, take the first and second offensive series of the Fiesta Bowl. First series--Oregon marches right down the field, plays with tempo and tethers together some really nice plays, keeping ISU totally off-balance. Then, second series they go right back to pistol zone read up the middle and get stuffed..then Dye fumbles..and the rest is history. Now, lots of folks have pontificated that MC needs to take the training wheels off of his OC's. And I'm certainly no insider so I'm not sure to what extent he's either inhibiting (the play calling or not) but it's pretty obvious that the Ducks must break this tendency if they want to glean any sense of establishing an identity..because let's be honest, it's not working. Good DC's are taking the run game away (see Cal game this year). Wilcox is a great DC that happens to be a HC. And he knew exactly how to take away Oregon's effectiveness. UCLA and Azzinaro relentlessly run blitzed Oregon on first and second downs but the Ducks actually adapted that game and relied more on the RPO passing game. So it's hard to know if there's any validity to this notion of MC standing in the way because we've seen the opposite at times (Utah Pac-12 Championship in 2019) but this offense and team was hard to watch this year. What was its identity? If it's being a power running team, then it's time to get a power running back and a stouter OL. But now Ducks have recruited the best WR/TE tandem group in the country. So what gives? Are we going to be a passing team now?

Hard to say, but let's all be glad this one is over. Did we learn anything? Short answer is--I think so and I'm not so sure. Both apply. Lot's of work to be done obviously. Having a full offseason will be advantageous to be sure. Help is on the way at nearly every position on the field. MC has proven he can adapt. He's hired better and better coaches. He's recruited better and better athletes every year.

Let's all hope that 2020 was an enigma. And yet, the Ducks still won the Pac...despite all of the above. Not bad I say..

But plenty to improve upon.

Just my .02 cents..

That kid in Boston


With an injury to Smart Peyton didn't start but he played 32 minutes and used them well. He showed up with 23 points, 8 assists and a pair of rebounds. He earned a post game interview seat and a replay of his high school "running Man" video which is going to earn a lot more viewing. I'm not sure he played great defense but all I was able to watch were a series of highlights. He was in a lot of them on both ends of the court.

What I saw was more of his ability to score, albeit against a 1-5 Tampa Bay Raptors team, in the paint. He took intelligent shots, not forcing them, and made several including nice hook shot when it looked like he was going to pass the ball.

He's not doing bad for being Boston's second first round pick down the ladder where a lot of picks don't do much in the way of a career in the league.

There is a lot of noise about him in post game shows and fandom out here in New England and the ROY award is already in it, though it is pretty early for that kind of speculation. P Rabbit is catching on as a nickname and the supply is way behind demand for his souvenir jersey.

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Mea Culpa

I'm 71 years old and have been a Duck fan since I was old enough to know the difference between a Duck and a Beaver.

Yesterday was the first time I have EVER shut off and walked away from a Duck football game (never mind that it was a bowl game) in the third quarter KNOWING it was possibly bad for my health to watch the rest of the game. I went to the store, bought some groceries and didn't even look at the final score until almost 9 last night. I simply didn't care.

I didn't care because I had seen nothing from this team that made me WANT to care. I loved to watch the Rich Brooks teams because, as bad as they were, they all CARED. They fought with all their might (and usually lost), but the FIGHT in them made me care passionately for every little success they had. This team has WORLDS more talent than those did...but not a fraction of the heart. As a result, I can't give my heart to them. I don't even care enough to be disgusted at their effort.

(note: this pertains to the entire team in the first half and the offense in the second. I see that the defense did it's job in the second but the offense was busy making plans for the after game party or something.)

Off-season couldn't have come soon enough.

Thank God for basketball, track and softball.

Boise State, Avalos, and a looming decision

With a new athletic director hired, the Broncos are not going to waste a ton of time here.

The decision is expected before the end of the week and the top two remaining names are no secret: Andy Avalos and Jeff Choate. But, there are murmurs of other candidates that are not a part of the Boise State 'family tree' of former players/coaches. Football Scoop is talking about Graham Harrell, but the people I spoke with don't know that he is a legit target for them; possibly some disinformation. I don't think Tom Herman would take it, but I know that he got a cursory call to gauge interest. Boise State could get him on the cheap, but I think that they very well know he would be a rental and is unlikely to sign a deal that includes a buyout so big no one would touch him, so that was more just a guy that used to work in the same place as Herman being sure he would make the right call.

I know for sure that Avalos wowed Mario Cristobal during his interview prior to getting the Oregon job and I can guarantee you that his ability to be prepared for an interview has gotten even better, so he will wow the new AD as much as he did others in his "informal" interview. But the pressure from boosters, players and former players in favor of Choate is very real and very reminiscent of the mood around Cristobal after Taggart left - so that could carry some weight here.

Either way, I expect this to be over fairly quickly.

An Optimistic Viewpoint

Yeah, I'm as bummed out as everybody else.

Yelling at the TV, questioning the coaches, etc.

But I am also extremely optimistic about this team.

1. Coaching: ummm, does anybody remember that we won the Rose Bowl just a year ago and finished #5 in the nation? And that coming on top of a winning season after the Taggert disaster?
MC got rid of an OC that wasn't really a good fit (doesn't really matter how that went down), brought in an awesome DC, brought in an apparently awesome WR coach. Recruiting isn't just for players. We have a HC that is not afraid to make changes to the staff.

Scheme....no problem on D...I think that we have only begun to see Morehaed's talents on the O.

2. Recruiting...much has been said but the teams with the best players usually win over time.

3. O Line...I called them out before the season and unfortunately, I was right. Not too good this year. However, I think that they progressed through the season, and with a regular off-season and some new blood, they might even be good next year.

4. TE...starting two former defensive ends. 'Nuff said about this year.....the future looks really bright at the spot.

5. WR....WAY, better than just two years ago....best class in the country coming in this spring...hot new coach. Now if we can just get them the ball. Remember Williams's big game this season? We have some potential big-time players on the roster and more on the way. Get them the damned ball.

6. RB...Very good RB room...if Verdell comes back and stays healthy and the coach lets Dollars play...watch out. Should be good depth there as well.

7. QB...ahh...there's the rub. I have been down on Shough this year but statistically, he's been pretty good. Don't know if he is the answer but how good would he have been if he could have played behind last year's line? Now if his confidence isn't shot he may end up being a player. In any event, there is plenty of talent behind him.

8. D.....not worried about the D very much. Had a rough stretch there for a while but some of those young 'uns really grew up. Seems like Avalos could have done a better job in the middle of the season (OSU) but I thought that the D rally balled out in the second half of the Fiesta. Very excited about the D next year.

So, I'm excited about next year and predict big things the year after and going forward.

From SI:

We got the most extended look at Oregon, and while the Ducks didn't exactly blow us away (they won the Pac-12 without winning their division because 2020 was silly), the promise shined through in glimpses. They outgained a good Iowa State team by 2.3 yards per play in the Fiesta Bowl -- how'd they lose by 17? Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers -- the run game was efficient despite a brand new offensive line, QB-of-the-future Tyler Shough completed 64% of his passes, sophomore receivers Mycah Pittman and Devon Williams were big-play threats, and Oregon finished coordinator Joe Moorhead's first season ranked 17th in offensive SP+ and 13th in success rate. It appears a strong majority of 2020's production will return in 2021.

season over so no longer have to hear the excuse.......

that Ducks are the yongest team in the country. Even though its technically true, there was acutally only one true freshman that started and that was Sewell. The other 21 starters were ALL veteran players. Its a lame excuse. Again, four/five star players in the programs. Oregon -47 Iowa state -3. This amazes me to no end that they got so manhandled. Totally out coached yesterday. Out-toughed as well

So what now? Do I think the future is bleak? No. Do I want coaches fired? No. Do I still like what Cristabol is doing ? Hell yes.Great recruilter , but what everyone needs to learn is that being great in high school obviously does not always translate to being great in college. 47-3....47-3....47-3.......47-3......What I want is for everyone in the program to acknowledge where they are right now. The team was very lucky to even get to 4-3 this year. Could have easily been 2-5. Probalbly deserved to be 3-4 at best. The virus is not an excuse. That was a level playing field for every team in the country. The fact is, this is a mediocre program. How many division 1 programs are there? 130? Oregon is in the 50-70 range. They are not good. They don't have a QB. They don't have a quality left tackle. They don't have very good safetys. They need much better defensive lineman.They need more quality linebackers. Many defenders need to slim down to increase quickness. . Funa, Sewell, Fauliu. Maybe Hill. Offensive line may need to slim down as well. They are big but not athletic enough. Mostly need a QB. If Shough continues to throw directly to defenders, he cannot play at this level. He does it a few times every game. The way the coaches handled the QB's yesterday was insane. They need to find one before next fall. Right now, if things get back to normal next season, I would make Ohio state about a 30 point favorite over this Duck team. Its not even close. This Duck team is so far behind the Ohio states of the wor;d, they can't even see them. They have along spring and summer to try to close that gap. The first step IMO is for them to acknowledge how truly mediocre, and how far from being nationally relevant they are today. Harry high schoolers with a lot of stars don't scare anyone at this level.

Stupid is as stupid does

Without Justin Herbert, Jevon Holland, Troy Dye, Penei Sewell, Thomas Graham, and Brady Breeze, this was a team that made an inordinate number of stupid mistakes, like fumbling, throwing directly to defenders and losing two possessions in the return game.

Their organization and readiness on special teams is particularly abysmal.

Lost spring practice, delayed fall camp and Covid uncertanties didn't seem to effect Iowa State. They played a nearly flawless game, very disciplined and well-coached.

A loss is not always that big of a loss

The Oregon women's team lost at home as UCLA bookended the 27 game home winning streak by a two point margin. As an ex official I seldom criticize referees but last night the collective performance was weak. I'd have to go over mistake after mistake to decide if either team gained an advantage but I'm not going to do that. I just feel it should be pointed out. A matchup like this one should have had a better crew.

The Ducks did win each of the last three quarters and a turnover ended their shot a win or overtime. There was a positive.

Too many other turnovers and a hard time getting good shots slowed down the offense. This, I believe were a good thing for the development of the team, Particularly with the Stanford game close at hand. I believe the loss could well be looked at as the first tough game a group of girls with less than ten games on their ledger probably learned a lot last night. Oregon was also without a couple of good players with Chavez and Prince not available, but depth of talent made it less an issue.

Credit a more experienced Bruin defense and some very good shooting by a couple of upperclassmen on an also short benched team for the win. They would probably have won this game five or six times out of ten with their talent and experience. I'm not sure they will do as well further into the season.

Worth pointing out, while possibly misspelling her name, I was VERY impressed with Dugalvic who is going to be a major factor well before the end of the season. Beside good rebounding, she made some powerful scoring moves in the paint and saved two possessions with difficult hustle in saving the ball from going out of bounds.

Had a commitment and taped the game....should I even bother?

After looking at the stats I'm not sure it is worth getting pissed watching the game.
I have watched a lot of football and am pretty darn sure I have never seen a team win after losing the T.O. margin 4-0, run 46 plays to their 85 and have possession of the ball for only 17:12 minutes out of the 60 minutes played.
It sounds like people are questioning some of the coaching and like I mentioned a few weeks ago I am having those same thoughts....great guys, great recruiters etc. but the game time coaching doesn't always pass the smell test!
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