Yes Sir!!
Who can become college football's next superpower?
One could easily make the case that, as with the UEFA Champions League in soccer, the creation of the College Football Playoff took a sport already defined by its haves-versus-have-nots divisions and increased them.
Of 28 CFP bids handed out in seven years, 20 have gone to four schools: Alabama (six), Clemson (six), Oklahoma (four) and Ohio State (four). They've won 22 conference titles between them in that span, leaving even other well-run programs -- the Georgias and Notre Dames and, briefly, LSUs of the world -- to forage for scraps.
The top four in
2021's SP+ projections? Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State. They could be the top four in the preseason AP poll as well. If they aren't, it's because Georgia butted ahead of one of them, but that wouldn't be much of a sign of parity. After all, the Dawgs reached a CFP final (in the 2017 season), have established maybe the highest level of recruiting outside of Tuscaloosa and have finished in the AP top 10 for four straight years. A have-not, they are not.
This isn't exactly the 1970s, when nine schools accounted for 69 of 80 spots in the year-end AP polls, but it's not far off. And it becomes easy to forget that one of the names in the current list of dominant forces is a newbie of sorts.
At the end of 2014, Dabo Swinney's Clemson was regarded as one of a few programs on the rise. The Tigers had won double-digit games for four straight seasons and had squeezed out a top-10 finish, the program's first in 23 years, in 2013. They had signed a blue-chip quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who looked the part when given the chance, but he had torn his ACL at the end of 2014. AP voters cautiously started the Tigers 12th in 2015, two spots behind three-time defending ACC champ Florida State.
They ignited in 2015, of course, reaching the national title game, then winning it the next season. They've gone 79-7 over the past six years, ranking No. 1 in the AP poll at least briefly each year and making six consecutive CFPs. Watson was the first of
many five-star quarterbacks signed by Swinney, who invested heavily in his pool of assistants, raised the program's overall recruiting game (Clemson averaged 8.0 ESPN 300 signees from 2011 to 2014 and 14.3 from 2018 to 2021) and slowly built a purple-and-orange ACC Death Star. The Tigers had won two league titles from 1989 to 2014; they've now won six in a row.
While so much of this sport is dominated by the same schools that have
always been members of the oligarchy -- Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma were on the 1970s blue bloods list, too, after all -- Clemson followed a script that technically anyone with power conference money, an invested fan base and good, old-fashioned commitment can follow: make a good hire, support that hire, win a little bit, recruit better and better, win more and more.
Just because almost no one actually pulls this off doesn't mean no one else can. And someone else will at some point.
Who might that 'someone' be?
To begin answering that, let's first digress and return to a topic I
brought up in October, as one of a few potential New Clemsons was getting its season underway. Granted, that piece proved my unlimited jinxing powers -- Penn State, the subject of the piece, proceeded to start its 2020 season with five losses -- but within that piece I laid out what I hoped was an interesting new way of looking at the sport.
| SCORING MARGIN | EST. MARGIN | EFFICIENCY | KEY PLAYS | EXPLOSIVE | TURNOVERS | ST |
---|
National champ (2006-20) | 24.7 | 24.7 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
CFP participant (2014-20) | 21.2 | 20.9 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Clemson (2012-14) | 16.1 | 16.6 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
Clemson (2015-20) | 24.8 | 22.9 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
While recruiting has indeed picked up for Clemson through the years, Swinney's Tigers broke through without signing quite as many blue-chippers as other national powers. They made a few more big plays and shored up their special teams a bit, but the biggest gains were made in the key plays department. Over the past six seasons, teams have gained an average of at least 9.5 points per game from key plays only 16 times -- Clemson has done it five times, and the other 129 FBS teams have combined for 11.
The Tigers won the national championship game over Alabama in 2019 almost
entirely because of those key-play situations -- they won 19 of the game's 28 third downs (they were 10-for-15, Bama 4-for-13) and four of seven fourth downs, and not including an end-of-game kneel-down possession, they scored 37 points in six scoring opportunities while Alabama scored just 16 in six. Toss in a pick-six, and that's how you win by 28 while creating the same number of scoring chances as your opponent.
That was a particularly extreme example -- even the best third-down and red zone teams can't accomplish
that often, and applying extra value to a small sample of plays in an already small-sample sport can be fraught. Still, situational football is a real thing, and Clemson has leveraged games with elite play in these situations for a long time. Those numbers aren't flukes.
Which teams are closest to club membership? To take into account both Clemson's on-field improvement and its solid recruiting in the time leading up to 2015's breakthrough, let's look at the 12 programs that have both (a) averaged at least six ESPN 300 signees per season and (b) generated at least a 0.600 win percentage over the past three years.
| SCORING MARGIN | EST. MARGIN | EFFICIENCY | KEY PLAYS | EXPLOSIVE | TURNOVERS | ST |
---|
Clemson (2012-14) | 16.1 | 16.6 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
Georgia (2018-20) | 17.2 | 16.3 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
Notre Dame (2018-20) | 14.7 | 14.3 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
Florida (2018-20) | 14.5 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
Oregon (2018-20) | 10.8 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Penn State (2018-20) | 12.3 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 1.0 |
LSU (2018-20) | 10.9 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
Texas A&M (2018-20) | 9.9 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 1.5 |
Auburn (2018-20) | 8.5 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
Washington (2018-20) | 9.4 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Michigan (2018-20) | 7.0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.2 |
Texas (2018-20) | 8.1 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
USC (2018-20) | 4.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
1. Georgia Bulldogs
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3. Oregon Ducks
Here are the teams that signed more ESPN 300 prospects than Oregon in the 2021 class: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Mario Cristobal is wrecking shop in the recruiting department, but that's only one of two reasons why the Ducks rank this highly. The other? They're in the Pac-12, the only conference not currently monopolized by one of the four powers this piece is built around.
The Pac-12 could have incredible depth in 2021, with most teams returning a vast majority of the brief 2020 season's production. But there's no slam-dunk national title contender, and the first program that can go from good to potentially elite could reap long-term dividends. Washington and USC have high amounts of potential, too, and I'm fascinated by what Arizona State's offense might be capable of this fall. But while an unclear quarterback situation could hold the Ducks back in the short term, whenever Cristobal and offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead get the QB situation squared away, said signal-caller is going to be supported by blue-chippers in virtually every unit on the two-deep. I still give the Ducks the long-term edge here due to potential and recent recruiting.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. LSU Tigers