Since I almost always write these the night before, I am going to go ahead and copy paste now:
Today feels a little different. After getting blown out by Utah for a second time in three games, Oregon coaches, players, and fans were left wondering what exactly happened out there. I am not going to dedicate my time to rehashing the loss from Friday in this space – because other things suddenly came up after that loss.
WHERE EVERYTHING STANDS
Mario Cristobal and assistant coaches were on the road recruiting yesterday. He seemed to be a little more straightforward with Cyrus Moss – in a sort of non-committal way. As Adam Gorney reported, Moss said Cristobal "told me he was absolutely not trying to leave Oregon.”
There is a lot of nuance to that statement and it brings an air of truth to one concept: Miami is absolutely putting pressure out there with the information that has leaked out. Manny Diaz is still the head coach at the University of Miami and news media are reporting that a different head coach has been offered?
The nuance here is that Cristobal absolutely does love what he has built and he absolutely knows that the future is bright at Oregon. But the lack of a definitive statement knowing that the rumors of his imminent departure are swirling faster than any known vortex have created a lot of consternation at just about every level. I do know that this is not a decision that will be made lightly.
I have seen a lot of comparisons to Willie Taggart, but the situations could not be more different – aside from each school being a supposed childhood dream. Taggart was in Oregon for less than a year and there was never a doubt (in his mind) what he was going to do. Sure, he played it as coolly as he could, had back channel people feeding information to reporters, but he was gone the minute Florida State offered and it was never really even close.
Cristobal has been the Oregon head coach for four years, so this is not a fly-by-night moment where he bolts after a single season. While most people talk about the family issue of returning due to his mother’s ailing health, there are other issues which are adding a sense of urgency here. The reality is that this might be the last chance Cristobal gets to be the coach at his alma mater. It is clear Manny Diaz will not be the coach after next season no matter what Cristobal does this week; and Miami is unlikely to call him again next year and go through this same cycle. He has some very close friends on the football side who really want him to go back to Miami.
Right now, Cristobal is the ‘prodigal son’ in the football coaching world of Miami football. Suppose for a moment that Joey Harrington was a highly successful football coach working as the head coach of Michigan and had similar success there as Cristobal has had at Oregon and the Duck job suddenly came open; that Oregon had not had success since he left and the influential people inside the athletic department, the influential boosters, all of his college teammates and everyone he grew up with was asking for him to return? I think most Oregon fans would be clamoring for his return and he would struggle with the decision.
That’s what is happening here and Cristobal is truly torn right now. At noon on Sunday, I thought this was over; that Cristobal was going to fly to Eugene, have a late-night meeting with the team, and then be announced at an early morning press conference today at Miami. All of that could still happen (though obviously not on the same timeline), but the reality that it did not should be all the evidence we need that this is complicated and an extremely difficult decision not just for Cristobal, but his entire family. This decision will affect the lives of literally more than a hundred people in Oregon alone.
I do believe we will know fairly early what the status is. I do not believe that the ‘ultimatum’ given by Miami had no flexibility. I mean, when a program lets leak that they are working on a contract for a new coach before the old coach has been fired, a few extra hours is not going to make much difference. Miami went with a nuclear option by putting so much information to the public about this search; there is zero chance Diaz survives the 2022 season – and his chances at landing a top recruiting class seem remote at best right now. Miami is where USC was with Clay Helton as head coach.
STRANGER THINGS
But that is the thing here; why would Miami put all of this out there if they did not already have an agreement in principle for a replacement? This is just really bad management. The lack of an athletic director in place has not helped – but it also makes you think back a little over a week ago; how many times did the names James Franklin and Luke Fickell come up for USC? And how many times did anyone talk about Lincoln Riley?
Everything I have heard from the Miami side is that Cristobal is the absolute only target, but stranger things have happened this season on the coaching carousel.
RECRUITING IMPACT
If Cristobal leaves, the impact is going to be massive. We are a week away from early signing period and there is very little chance that Oregon has a new head coach on board in time to do much recruiting before that early signing period.
I think a few of the west coast prospects are likely to stay committed, but this is going to create significant damage to this class and will likely cause some attrition from the existing roster. If Cristobal leaves, his replacement is going to have a major roster rebuild ahead.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Cristobal got back to Eugene last night and will have a lot of conversations. He has a contract extension on the table with terms that are very good. From what Miami folks told me, they will not get into a bidding war; the offer he has at Miami is not going to go up. The Oregon folks have also indicated that they will not go above what is on the table.
What that means is, this is really just about making the decision that impacts hundreds of people and he will talk about it with his family overnight. I expect a decision early in the day. Will it be before this article posts at 8:00 AM? No clue.
But think about the impact it would make if Cristobal stays. It could be a monumental statement that will be quite compelling to high school football players across the country.
No matter what, we will have some closure on the topic Monday.
All for now!
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