Dan Lanning had nothing to think about. No analytics, no internal back-and-forth, no self-doubt, no wondering what people would say if he failed. Nothing. There wasn’t an ounce of hesitation in the most critical moment of his young career as a head coach.
Go for it.
There were just a little over two minutes remaining in a heavyweight fight. A top-10 matchup in which
Oregon and
Washington absorbed big punch after big punch and kept getting up. Lanning’s Ducks were clinging to a slim four-point lead and faced a fourth-and-2 from the Washington 47-yard line. Lanning made the decision.
Go for it.
The second that
Bo Nix’s fourth-down pass hit the turf, the criticism of Lanning’s decision started. Then, as Washington drove down the field and scored the go-ahead touchdown in two plays, it got louder. Then, after Oregon got the ball back down three, drove into field goal range and missed what would have been a game-tying attempt as the clock expired, it erupted.
Lanning is an idiot.
There is a difference between aggressive and reckless.
How do you not punt the ball in that situation?
Who gambles with his team’s season?
What would Nick Saban or Kirby Smart have done?
Blah, blah, blah, blah … blah. How can people watch football and think like this?
The man was two yards away from winning on the road and his team had 500 yards of offense. WHY IS IT DUMB? I'm losing my mind.
https://t.co/jUXw3Ib7tD
— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman)
October 14, 2023
The prevailing thought from the game should have been clear the second Lanning kept his offense on the field. Oregon has its man. That’s not often the takeaway after a soul-crushing loss, but it’s appropriate now. Lanning showed us who he is on national television. He is a man who gets it, who coaches with conviction and who trusts the people around him. This is a man who doesn’t consider failure before attempting to be great. This is a man who doesn’t approach his job — or the game of football — scared. This is a man who is going to win big when the breaks start falling Oregon’s way.
Don’t be results-oriented. Don’t wait to see how the game played out as proof of whether Lanning did the right thing. He unquestionably made the right call based on the information available to him at the time.
Consider a blackjack hand. If you have 16 and you’re facing a 10, you should hit. If you’re dealt a 10 on the hit and bust, that doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision. You still made the right decision, but the results don’t go your way 100 percent of the time.
Lanning went for it. And in doing so, he showed everyone what he stands for and who he is as a coach.
GO DEEPER
Vannini: Dan Lanning made the right call, but Oregon keeps faltering in big games
Who on earth could possibly believe that Oregon’s program would be better off had he punted? Who could possibly think taking the ball out of your Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback’s hands and willingly giving it to another Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback is the right play? How can people be so afraid, so overly cautious, so reluctant to go out and win?
Lanning had a news conference in Eugene on Monday night. He knew that he’d be grilled repeatedly about his thought process, not only on the fourth down call at the end of the game but also on his decision to go for it on fourth down before halftime rather than taking three points — the eventual margin of Washington’s victory. He came out ready to calmly discuss what should have already been obvious to anyone watching.
“If I knew that none of them were going to work, you’d change every situation, right?” Lanning said. “That’s not the way those decisions work. When you sit in this seat, I’m a big boy, I can handle criticism. And that’s going to come, and it’s deserved. In this position, that’s the way it works. I trust our players. I trust our coaches, and when we have opportunities to win games, I’m going to be aggressive to win games.”
At the time of the decision, Oregon had 33 points and more than 500 yards of offense. It had 3 yards to go to end the game and get the win on the road. Though some may argue that punting there would have increased Oregon’s odds of winning, what message does that send to your team? What message does it send if Lanning punts and the ball goes into the end zone, and Washington scores in five plays instead of two?
“At the very end of the game, I don’t think there’s any scenario where I wouldn’t go for it on fourth down there when you have an opportunity to put the game away,” Lanning said. “They had scored on more than 50 percent of their drives at that point in the game. You know, 75 yards to 50 yards to 80 yards, for them with a potent offense, they’re going to have a lot of success in a lot of those scenarios. And transversely, it gives our offense an opportunity to come back and still have a chance in that situation if we don’t get it. If we get the first down, the game is over.”
If I’m an athletic director hiring a coach, I want that guy on the sidelines.
If I’m a five-star recruit, that’s the coach I want to play for. I want the coach who puts the ball in my hands with the game on the line, not the one wimping out and playing not to lose.
You have to acknowledge Oregon’s failures on fourth down and other big moments under Lanning’s leadership, especially how the Ducks have failed to convert on all eight of their fourth-down attempts in their last two games against their two biggest rivals, on Saturday vs. Washington and last year against
Oregon State. And that doesn’t include the Washington game last year when Lanning elected to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Oregon 34-yard line with under two minutes remaining in a tie game. The Ducks lost a yard on the play. Moments later, Washington kicked a field goal to win the game.
The Ducks have lost those games to rivals. Those are facts. If things work out the same way as the years go by, then you can revisit how to analyze Lanning.
But what’s not to like right now?
Lanning continues to increase the talent level on the roster. Oregon’s 2024 class ranks No. 9 nationally in the 247Sports Composite, and the Ducks recently earned a
commitment from four-star defensive lineman Aydin Breland of Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei. They are also trending for five-star defensive end Elijah Rushing of Tucson (Ariz.) Salpointe Catholic, who recently decommitted from Arizona.
You have a young, aggressive head coach who has a background at Georgia and understands the importance of talent accumulation. And he can look future recruits in the eye and tell them he’s going to bet on them when the big moments arise. There’s an epidemic of scared coaches who make weak calls in this sport, and it’s a breath of fresh air that there are people willing to do it differently.
As Oregon continues to find itself in these big moments, odds are the ball is going to start bouncing in the Ducks’ direction. There will be fourth-and-short opportunities later this year that could have Oregon fighting to get into the College Football Playoff. Maybe next time Oregon will convert. Maybe it’ll come in Las Vegas with Washington on defense again.
But questioning how he calls the game now? That’s soft.
“What’s tough is when I make those decisions, it doesn’t just affect me, it affects everybody in our program, it affects everybody who cares about Oregon football and I understand that,” Lanning said. “But it’s not like those decisions are made on Saturday in that moment, you know. Those decisions were made earlier in the week. We knew it’s gonna be a high-scoring game where touchdowns over field goals mattered. In that scenario, like I said before, at the half I think you could certainly say that could go the other direction. A lot of the other scenarios, I don’t know that you play it any other way other than if you already knew what the result in play was going to be.
“Three opportunities on a fourth down, the chances of us not getting one of those three is really unique.”
This is Oregon’s personality as a program.
It’s going to lead to winning big — maybe even in a few months.
