Going to be another busy and hectic day tomorrow (relief is on the way for me though); thought I would post Flock Talk here tonight.
Getting defensive
When we are young, we believe in magic; we believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairies and every sort of magic that brings joy; and I think that such hopefulness can be a very good thing. As we grow, though, these beliefs are replaced by realities that seem to drown out what little hope might be left.
After his introduction in 2009, Larry Scott commented on hope for the future, his recognition that the (then) Pac-10 wanted more commercial success and his leadership experience in athletics was widely praised.
The Pac-10's member schools "are craving different, more media exposure, more commercial success where it's possible, innovative and different ways to promote the conference -- all things I feel I've done before," Scott said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.
When Scott negotiated the largest media rights deal in college football history two years later, even more praise was heaped upon the slender shoulders of a former college tennis player from Harvard.
And the great deal that was, suddenly was not. The projected windfall of a Pac-12 Network never came to full fruition as it became painfully clear that Direct TV did not value the Pac-12 as much as other conferences – and data have backed their negativity more than anything. Viewer numbers for Pac-12 games – despite some significant television markets – do not match those of the SEC, Big-10 or Big-12.
That 2011 deal was considered a coup at the time; but all it really did was set the market for the SEC, Big-10, Big-12 and to a lesser extent the ACC. Holding out hope that the next round of negotiations will bring a sudden windfall seems a fantasy more so than a reality.
So, when George Kliavkoff was introduced as the next Pac-12 Commissioner and began with the “honest” assessment of what is wrong with the conference, he already missed the mark. He said many of the right things like "we know where our bread is buttered," and "we're focused on the revenue sports and winning in football and men's basketball," it resonated well.
But so did Larry Scott’s introduction.
Kliavkoff is still going to be hamstrung by university presidents who want to make public their belief that “the prestige level of the public universities within the conference will be among the main differentiators in the Pac-12's favor when compared to other P5 conferences.”
In the same breath when talking about revenue expansion, he ignores the reality that college football and basketball viewers absolutely do not care about the prestige level of the universities that they choose to watch on television. They just do not care. The difference between the SEC and other Power Five conferences is very simple: they have more viewers and get better television deals – hence more money into their coffers to pay coaches more. You get what you pay for.
The biggest item on the agenda for an incoming Pac-12 Commissioner is to get more fans in the stands and more eyes on the television; you cannot win this battle from supply side television where putting the games on televisions generates higher viewership; you have to force every school to take football and basketball seriously enough that the best coaches and best players want to be plying their wares in the Pac-12 Conference. All of the other talk is window dressing.
Less eyes equals less money. More money will equal more eyes. So, will Kliavkoff convince university presidents to willingly generate huge debt to prop up football and basketball programs? In the Pac-12 landscape, that seems highly improbable.
If Kliavkoff wants to turn around the Pac-12 and make them competitive with those other conferences financially, the negotiation he has to win will not be with television networks, but with university presidents.
Can Oregon break ground for the Pac-12?
For the last couple of years, Oregon has seemed the best chance for the Pac-12 to break the streak of non-national championship years for the conference.
It is going to be a tough road for basketball as they integrate what will constitute a team that is virtually brand new. While Dana Altman does a fantastic job blending the mixed parts that have become his yearly basketball rotation, he has not really come close to a national championship since the departure of Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell, Dylan Ennis, Payton Pritchard and Tyler Dorset came a rebound away from a National Championship Game appearance in Phoenix. That team was led by players who had been teammates for three years and a fantastic freshman.
It is too early to call the 2021 Oregon football team one that will break through that ceiling; a tough road trip early may give some indication, but honestly, a single championship will not turn the tide of viewers and attitudes. It will be called a fluke and pushed aside as an anomaly that cannot be duplicated with regularity.
It would take sustained excellence by the conference or domination by a single school to generate the kind of viewership needed to stand toe-to-toe with the SEC or Big-10 for television revenues. Instead this is going to take conference wide investment and a conference wide push. Will it help if Oregon breaks through and wins a title? Absolutely. Either way, however, an investment in winning must take place before the conference simply sets the stage for the rest of college football.
How does this affect recruiting?
Right now, across the United States, college football coaches are drooling at the thought of stealing more elite West Coast players. This hire energized their belief that the conference is not wholly invested in the sport that pays most of the bills.
Part of that football investment has to include money at every university to hire bigger staffs; to recruit like Oregon. And I think that is where the Ducks can change this game for the conference. Right now, Oregon and USC pretty much are the only schools that land elite talent. Getting players to Washington State might be deemed difficult – but there were those that thought Oregon was too difficult to lure recruits to; and they were wrong. It takes energy, devotion, commitment and a relentless drive to have the absolute best talent on every roster.
Some teams have attempted to mimic Oregon, but too many accept their plight as also-rans and that kind of defeatism is what separates the Pac-12 from other conferences.
This is a big gamble. Either the conference wins big, or they fall flat on their face. Given that it was the presidents and chancellors that wanted this hire, I am not convinced the conference wins big here.
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