What follows is speculation, but it meets the test of Occam's Razor, the simplest explanation that accounts for all the data.
Oregon is having a down scaled year in recruiting.
Mario Cristobal, a two-time National Recruiter of the Year, an o-line savant who recruited and/or coached four of the last five Outland Trophy winners, didn't suddenly forget how to recruit offensive linemen, identify talent and sell the considerable strengths of his program.
Yet as we have discussed, the star power in the 2022 class is well below what the Ducks achieved in the last three.
It's a unique year.
On campus, there's a supersized freshmen class. All the 2020s redshirted, all the 2021s are incoming. There's a cache of super seniors as well.
Thus, rosters are deeper, and the scholarship limit in coming seasons is murky.
On the recruiting trail campus visits were first prohibited and then compressed into a single month, June, followed by the unprecedented creation of NIL, a channel for funneling money to top players for 2022.
Creating a frenzied, superheated market for their talents, with players, their advisors and their families having new-found leverage and bargaining power.
College football is unique from the NFL in that every coach is also the GM with ultimate control over the system, the culture and the roster.
Along with the school's donors, he sets the recruiting budget, establishing the "salary cap," if you will. All within NCAA rules, of course, while fully employing the opportunities presented by NIL.
It really looks like Oregon's plan is to work within a conservative budget in the overheated 2022 market, while making a max offer to the Last Missing Piece in the 2021 class, JT Tuimoloau.
For the 2023 cycle they'll return to aggressively seeking the best players, all while trying to raise the program's profile by succeeding on the field.
If JTT chooses tOSU, it frees up cap money.
Please discuss.