...or, as my wife would say, my usual long-winded blather with little point.
Recruiting: I read some - actually a lot - posts moaning about how poor our recruiting has been the past few years. I agree...but only in places. If we look at the latest depth chart and just take note of the true freshmen (last year's signees), redshirt freshmen & true sophs (signees from the year before), we come up with quite a list in the two-deep:
True Freshmen: Justin Herbert, Troy Dye, Brenden Schooler.
Redshirt Freshmen: Brady Aiello, Shane Lemieux, Jake Hanson, Calvin Throckmorton (that's 80% of our starting OL), Drayton Carlberg, Malik Lovette
True Sophomores: Taj Griffin (the Three Amigos are pretty interchangeable), Rex Manu, Ugo Amadi
Recent transfers that are in the 2-deep: Jonah Moi, AJ Hotchkins, Dakota Prukop, Zac Morgan,
So, between the 2015 and 2016 classes, we've added 16 players that are in our 2-deep - many of them as starters. That's not nearly as bad as I thought initially. Now, are there holes in that? Yep...and the fact most of that young talent lies on the offensive side is the reason defense is one of the issues we're all talking about.
At LB (for instance) we're seeing some major gaps. Two transfers - Moi & Hotchkins - and one true freshman - Dye - are filling 2/3 of the starting slots. That means our recruiting PRIOR to them joining the Ducks left a lot to be desired. Our veterans (Mattingly, Swain, Ragin) are not great in number and the rest are walkons or true freshmen gaining weight and/or experience before being thrown into battle. Only one conclusion comes to my mind: Whew!!! We did NOT do a good job in the 2012-2015 (arguably 2016) classes at the LB spots.
This year, we seem to be concentrating on: OL, LB, DBs, DL (not in any order other than what my brain pulled them up). Note the preponderance of defensive players? That reflects what you see in the depth chart. The problem is, we won't see any help from those guys until next season at the earliest; and, for most, not until the season after that. That illustrates a truth about recruiting: if we are lacking in some areas...look back 3 years to see what happened. It takes at least that long for the kids to become full fledged contributors...and, if we aren't getting that contribution, it usually takes 3 years or so for that failing to hit full force. And, if we try to fix it now, we'll usually have to wait at least 2 years to see the uptick.
Just for LBs, what happened three years ago? Well, we had a lame duck (no pun intended) DC leaving (and everyone knew it) and a totally unproven one taking over. Kids weren't sure for much of the cycle who the DC (or LB coach) would be. Do you blame them for not being wildly enthusiastic to sign on? What hurts is that, after we named our DC and got the staff in place, the next year wasn't any better (and, honestly, neither was the year before which says something, too). So, last year (and this) we're having to sign a LOT of LBs to fill the holes left in the years before - with only marginal success up to this point. Those holes, by the way, showed up on the field in weak LB play during 2014 and as part of a horrendous overall defense in 2015.
IMO, that trend won't really swing up until our LB starters (and depth) are rebuilt. Ragin, Swain, Hotchkins and Moi are trying to buy us some time. Dye, Simms, Winston & Briscoe are working hard to improve. Note that there isn't much in between. If we can sign Phillips and/or McBride, we'll be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. If we get neither, we're still hoping our flashlight batteries hold out a bit longer. I'm hoping for the light; but betting on the batteries because we will need at least 2 more real good LB classes to get close to where we need to be as a defense (IMO).
That's the worst area (IMO), but not the only one. Let's look at one that ALMOST got away from us.
On the other side of the ball, lets look at the OL. We're starting 4 redshirt freshmen with another one possibly in the mix (Okun) as well as a grad transfer (Morgan) backing up at both guard & tackle. Our second unit center (according to the depth chart) is a walk-on. We have two seniors on the OL - that transfer & Cameron Hunt - so, effectively we have ONE in that class. Major Oops several years ago. The coaches apparently saw the problem coming and recruited the heck out of it to fill those holes (thank God...imagine where we'd be without that class of redshirt freshmen). Greatwood added some more last go around and is looking at even more this time. Seems we learned a lesson or two here before we hit the point of no return.
I realize I'm only naming the players here; and I am not meaning that to be disparaging to them in any way. The issues we have in recruiting (and it's impacts) are the responsibility - full, total,100%, utterly - of the coaching staff. They've screwed the pooch in some areas for so long, the pooch is thinking of sending its resume to the Mustang Ranch. Our LB coach has become a basket case that's been slowly seeing the weave unravel for several years. IMO, he should (and probably will) find other "areas of interest" in the relatively near future. The same can be said of the DB coach (although someone seems to have lit a fire under him this year, so MAYBE he'll pull it together in time). We whiffed on QBs for too long (IMO, due to a thankfully departed "OC" and "QB coach" who neither recruited nor developed his area very well. The QB coaching has new blood so we have to wait and see a bit there.
Last random thought: I think we have a helluva staff - with a couple of soft spots that can be remedied. I think we have a talented roster - with a few soft areas that MUST be remedied. I think remedies to both are possible and, in one case, in the works already.
We are NOT going back to Rich Brooks' nightmares (sometimes I look back and think it was fun to know that, although we lost many times, our guys ALWAYS left it all on the field so it wasn't ALL bad), nor are we all the way back to Belloti ball with its maddening teases of excellence followed by reminders of reality; but we have to dig in, admit there are problems and be willing to do what is needed to fix them.
I have faith. I have hope. And I have a wife who thinks I worry about the Ducks too much.
C'est la vie. Vamos Patos!!
Recruiting: I read some - actually a lot - posts moaning about how poor our recruiting has been the past few years. I agree...but only in places. If we look at the latest depth chart and just take note of the true freshmen (last year's signees), redshirt freshmen & true sophs (signees from the year before), we come up with quite a list in the two-deep:
True Freshmen: Justin Herbert, Troy Dye, Brenden Schooler.
Redshirt Freshmen: Brady Aiello, Shane Lemieux, Jake Hanson, Calvin Throckmorton (that's 80% of our starting OL), Drayton Carlberg, Malik Lovette
True Sophomores: Taj Griffin (the Three Amigos are pretty interchangeable), Rex Manu, Ugo Amadi
Recent transfers that are in the 2-deep: Jonah Moi, AJ Hotchkins, Dakota Prukop, Zac Morgan,
So, between the 2015 and 2016 classes, we've added 16 players that are in our 2-deep - many of them as starters. That's not nearly as bad as I thought initially. Now, are there holes in that? Yep...and the fact most of that young talent lies on the offensive side is the reason defense is one of the issues we're all talking about.
At LB (for instance) we're seeing some major gaps. Two transfers - Moi & Hotchkins - and one true freshman - Dye - are filling 2/3 of the starting slots. That means our recruiting PRIOR to them joining the Ducks left a lot to be desired. Our veterans (Mattingly, Swain, Ragin) are not great in number and the rest are walkons or true freshmen gaining weight and/or experience before being thrown into battle. Only one conclusion comes to my mind: Whew!!! We did NOT do a good job in the 2012-2015 (arguably 2016) classes at the LB spots.
This year, we seem to be concentrating on: OL, LB, DBs, DL (not in any order other than what my brain pulled them up). Note the preponderance of defensive players? That reflects what you see in the depth chart. The problem is, we won't see any help from those guys until next season at the earliest; and, for most, not until the season after that. That illustrates a truth about recruiting: if we are lacking in some areas...look back 3 years to see what happened. It takes at least that long for the kids to become full fledged contributors...and, if we aren't getting that contribution, it usually takes 3 years or so for that failing to hit full force. And, if we try to fix it now, we'll usually have to wait at least 2 years to see the uptick.
Just for LBs, what happened three years ago? Well, we had a lame duck (no pun intended) DC leaving (and everyone knew it) and a totally unproven one taking over. Kids weren't sure for much of the cycle who the DC (or LB coach) would be. Do you blame them for not being wildly enthusiastic to sign on? What hurts is that, after we named our DC and got the staff in place, the next year wasn't any better (and, honestly, neither was the year before which says something, too). So, last year (and this) we're having to sign a LOT of LBs to fill the holes left in the years before - with only marginal success up to this point. Those holes, by the way, showed up on the field in weak LB play during 2014 and as part of a horrendous overall defense in 2015.
IMO, that trend won't really swing up until our LB starters (and depth) are rebuilt. Ragin, Swain, Hotchkins and Moi are trying to buy us some time. Dye, Simms, Winston & Briscoe are working hard to improve. Note that there isn't much in between. If we can sign Phillips and/or McBride, we'll be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. If we get neither, we're still hoping our flashlight batteries hold out a bit longer. I'm hoping for the light; but betting on the batteries because we will need at least 2 more real good LB classes to get close to where we need to be as a defense (IMO).
That's the worst area (IMO), but not the only one. Let's look at one that ALMOST got away from us.
On the other side of the ball, lets look at the OL. We're starting 4 redshirt freshmen with another one possibly in the mix (Okun) as well as a grad transfer (Morgan) backing up at both guard & tackle. Our second unit center (according to the depth chart) is a walk-on. We have two seniors on the OL - that transfer & Cameron Hunt - so, effectively we have ONE in that class. Major Oops several years ago. The coaches apparently saw the problem coming and recruited the heck out of it to fill those holes (thank God...imagine where we'd be without that class of redshirt freshmen). Greatwood added some more last go around and is looking at even more this time. Seems we learned a lesson or two here before we hit the point of no return.
I realize I'm only naming the players here; and I am not meaning that to be disparaging to them in any way. The issues we have in recruiting (and it's impacts) are the responsibility - full, total,100%, utterly - of the coaching staff. They've screwed the pooch in some areas for so long, the pooch is thinking of sending its resume to the Mustang Ranch. Our LB coach has become a basket case that's been slowly seeing the weave unravel for several years. IMO, he should (and probably will) find other "areas of interest" in the relatively near future. The same can be said of the DB coach (although someone seems to have lit a fire under him this year, so MAYBE he'll pull it together in time). We whiffed on QBs for too long (IMO, due to a thankfully departed "OC" and "QB coach" who neither recruited nor developed his area very well. The QB coaching has new blood so we have to wait and see a bit there.
Last random thought: I think we have a helluva staff - with a couple of soft spots that can be remedied. I think we have a talented roster - with a few soft areas that MUST be remedied. I think remedies to both are possible and, in one case, in the works already.
We are NOT going back to Rich Brooks' nightmares (sometimes I look back and think it was fun to know that, although we lost many times, our guys ALWAYS left it all on the field so it wasn't ALL bad), nor are we all the way back to Belloti ball with its maddening teases of excellence followed by reminders of reality; but we have to dig in, admit there are problems and be willing to do what is needed to fix them.
I have faith. I have hope. And I have a wife who thinks I worry about the Ducks too much.
C'est la vie. Vamos Patos!!
