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Opinion: How the 'enrollment cliff' is impacting college athletics

Scott Reed

Duck Hall of Famer
Staff
Mar 17, 2003
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As America's education landscape undergoes a transformation due to declining school-age children, colleges and universities are also grappling with declining enrollment. This trend is rooted in various factors, including the aftermath of the Great Recession and changing demographics. Even before the pandemic, cities and states were facing shrinking enrollment in public school systems. The pandemic further exacerbated this situation, resulting in significant student losses across various cities. However, demographic changes, including declining birth and immigration rates, have contributed to the enrollment decline even before the pandemic.

The implications of declining enrollment extend beyond K-12 schools to colleges and universities that rely on a steady stream of students for sustainability. This phenomenon is referred to as a "demographic cliff," signifying the challenges institutions face in maintaining their current structures. Efforts to address this challenge vary, with some jurisdictions considering school consolidation to reduce overhead and create economies of scale. However, such measures face challenges related to local control, community identity, and personalized education.

The decline in enrollment disproportionately impacts vulnerable students, exacerbating educational disparities. As the population ages, concerns arise about diminishing public support for education initiatives, straining the education system further. The need for comprehensive strategies to address the enrollment crunch is urgent, as the decline in school-age children affects even seemingly thriving educational systems. Equitable access to education and community vitality must remain priorities as the education landscape shifts.

Meanwhile, in 2021, Shippensburg University celebrated an NCAA Division II Field Hockey championship while simultaneously facing the enrollment cliff. This crisis, caused by a demographic decline following the Great Recession, is affecting colleges and universities across the country. Elite institutions are better equipped to handle the challenge due to their selectivity and wealth, but regional public universities and small private colleges are experiencing layoffs, consolidation, and closures.

Factors like immigration, economic shifts, and the pandemic have further complicated the situation, but the core issue remains the declining birth rates that set the stage for fewer high school graduates. Historically, demographic trends have influenced higher education, with generations experiencing a two-decade lag between birth and college enrollment. The baby boom era led to educational booms, but subsequent generations faced enrollment declines despite efforts to counterbalance the trend.

This current enrollment cliff presents unique challenges, disproportionately impacting states like Pennsylvania and the Northeast due to migration patterns and fertility rates. While colleges adapt by offering relevant programs and reshaping education delivery, the alignment of higher education with the labor market is inevitable. Colleges will likely use enrollment management techniques to maximize tuition revenue and prioritize programs leading to high-paying careers, potentially compromising academic standards and exacerbating class divisions.

Beyond being an educational challenge, the enrollment cliff has broader social and political implications. It could intensify the urban-rural divide as college-educated Democrats cluster in metropolitan areas, impacting electoral dynamics and deepening societal divides. Despite intermittent upward blips in birth rates, the future remains uncertain. The current generation's choices will shape the coming decades as higher education navigates a period of decline and transformation, reshaping the American education landscape with wide-ranging impacts.

In the realm of college athletics, institutions are also grappling with enrollment issues and using conference realignment to improve revenue generation. As colleges face declining enrollment, they are reevaluating their strategies for sustaining athletic programs. Conference realignment, wherein schools join or switch athletic conferences, has emerged as a strategic approach to enhance revenue generation and competitive opportunities.

This realignment aims to match universities with conferences that align with their financial and competitive goals. High-profile conferences often attract larger audiences, better broadcasting deals, and increased exposure, leading to higher revenue streams for member schools. By joining or switching conferences, universities seek to secure financial stability and enhance their athletic programs' visibility.

Conference realignment, however, presents its own set of challenges. It can disrupt longstanding rivalries and traditions, alienate fans, and raise questions about the true motivations behind the decisions. Additionally, realignment decisions are often driven by financial considerations, potentially overshadowing the broader educational and developmental goals of collegiate athletics.

In conclusion, the convergence of declining enrollment and conference realignment presents a complex landscape for both higher education institutions and college athletics. While colleges navigate the enrollment challenges with strategies to adapt and transform, conference realignment emerges as a way for athletic programs to secure financial viability and competitive advantages. As both realms undergo significant changes, their decisions will shape the future of education and sports in the United States.
 
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