So, I did not want to take away from a welcome thread. Regardless of how we view a players talent, he has chosen the Ducks and is, thereby, a part of the Duck family and a welcome thread should be just that...
I saw a post in there pointing out the potential of a three star prospect becoming a 5 star player. That may happen, but statistically speaking, the odds are heavily stacked against that kind of thing repeating itself.
There is a reason that Mike Riley watched as his team deteriorated into a Pac-12 also ran. Mike Riley began to believe his own hype. He turned Jonathan Smith and Ken Simonton into good Pac-12 players. He turned Sean Canfield (3*) and the Rodgers brothers (Quizz 3*, James 2*) into great players... he had that 2009 team on the cusp of Beaver history and only the Oregon Ducks rise stopped that team... and then he started thinking that he could keep repeating that magic... keep turning 2 and 3* players into Rose Bowl contenders.
How'd that work for him?
The reality is that going back at least 10 years, every national champion has had top 10 recruiting classes.
Say what you will about "rankings can be wrong" and "coaching players up" but the truth is that most three star players are what they are for a reason. A kid whose only other offers are from the likes of Colorado State and Idaho is much more likely to become the next Cody Carriger than the next Kiko Alonso.
With size and intelligence, there is the potential. But that and a dollar won't get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
I saw a post in there pointing out the potential of a three star prospect becoming a 5 star player. That may happen, but statistically speaking, the odds are heavily stacked against that kind of thing repeating itself.
There is a reason that Mike Riley watched as his team deteriorated into a Pac-12 also ran. Mike Riley began to believe his own hype. He turned Jonathan Smith and Ken Simonton into good Pac-12 players. He turned Sean Canfield (3*) and the Rodgers brothers (Quizz 3*, James 2*) into great players... he had that 2009 team on the cusp of Beaver history and only the Oregon Ducks rise stopped that team... and then he started thinking that he could keep repeating that magic... keep turning 2 and 3* players into Rose Bowl contenders.
How'd that work for him?
The reality is that going back at least 10 years, every national champion has had top 10 recruiting classes.
Say what you will about "rankings can be wrong" and "coaching players up" but the truth is that most three star players are what they are for a reason. A kid whose only other offers are from the likes of Colorado State and Idaho is much more likely to become the next Cody Carriger than the next Kiko Alonso.
With size and intelligence, there is the potential. But that and a dollar won't get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
